Syria: Battleground of ‘Power, Politics and Economics’

Authors

  • Husnain Shehzad Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan Author
  • Zubair Ahmed Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan Author

Keywords:

Syria, Civil War, Proxy Agents, Intervention, Global Powers

Abstract

This study explores the Syrian conflict’s transformation into a prolonged proxy war, highlighting the interplay between internal vulnerabilities and external interventions, with three dimensions: power, politics, and economics and addressing a critical research gap in understanding the nexus of authoritarian governance, sectarian divides, and international intervention. The study uses a qualitative approach, which analyses academic research, policy reports, credible news sources, and conflict data. The findings indicate that the Assad regime’s sectarian patronage system and elite-focused economic model fuelled dissent, while foreign powers exacerbated the conflict through competing agendas. Syria’s war has claimed over 400,000 lives, displaced millions, shrunk GDP by 60 percent, and caused infrastructure losses estimated at USD 1.2 trillion. The study underscores the necessity for inclusive political processes, equitable economic reforms, and decentralised government to achieve sustainable peace and progress. It contributes to the discourse on proxy warfare and global rivalry, offering insights into the complexities of internal collapse compounded by international competition. 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

  • Husnain Shehzad, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Husnain Shehzad is an MPhil Scholar at the School of Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad. 

  • Zubair Ahmed, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan

     Zubair Ahmed is a PhD Scholar at the School of Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.

References

Charlene Karina Lupita, “The Impact of Arab Spring on Middle East,” BINUS University, Accessed April 12, 2025, ir.binus.ac.id/2018/12/06/the-impact-of-arab-spring-on-middle-east/.

Al Jazeera, “Remembering Mohamed Bouazizi: The Man who Sparked the Arab Spring,” December 17, 2020, aljazeera.com/features/2020/12/17/remembering-mohamed-bouazizi-his-death-triggered-the-arab.

Abdallah Imam Haruna, “The Political Economy of the Violence in Syria: An Impact-Based Analysis,” European Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 1, no. 1 (2021): 41-51, doi.org/10.24018/ejsocial.2021.1.1.8.

Times Now World, “Assad Dynasty Rule Ends in Syria: How A Family Ruled Sunni Nation For 50 Years,” December 8, 2024, https://www.timesnownews.com/world/middle-east/assad-dynasty-rule-ends-in-syria-how-a-family-ruled-sunni-nation-for-50-years-article-116111820.

Jeffrey Martini, Erin York and William Young, Syria as an Arena of Strategic Competition (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, March 2013), https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR213.html.

Marian Zuber and Samuel Sahel Moussa, “Arab Spring as a Background of Civil War in Syria,” International Conference Knowledge-Based Organization, vol. 24, no. 1 (2018), pp. 245-251, doi.org/10.1515/kbo-2018-0038.

Barry R. Posen, “Civil Wars & the Structure of World Power,” Dædalus 146, no. 4 (2017): 167-179. doi:10.1162/DAED_a_00467.

Hussein Maklad, “Great Powers Competition in Syria,” Contemporary Arab Affairs 15, no. 3-4 (2022): 54-77, doi.org/10.1525/caa.2022.15.3-4.54.

Nilsen Aparecida Vieira Marcondes and Elisa Maria Andrade Brisola, “Análise por triangulação de métodos: um referencial para pesquisas qualitativas-Analysis by Methodological Triangulation: A Framework for Qualitative Research,” Revista Univap 20, no. 35 (2014): 201-208, doi.org/10.18066/revunivap.v20i35.228.

Mona Mohamed, Mohamed AF Ragab, and Amr Arisha, “Qualitative Analysis Methods Review,” 3S Group, College of Business, Technological University Dublin (2016), doi.org/10.21427/D75Z25.

Aya Waleed Ahmed Arman, “External Interventions in Internal Conflicts: A Case Study of Yemen,” Humanities & Natural Sciences Journal 4, no. 6 (2023): 26-33, doi.org/10.53796/hnsj463.

Elizabeth A. Kennedy and Frank Jordans, “UN: Syria Now in a Civil War,” NBC News, December 2, 2011, nbcnews.com/id/wbna45514855.

Al Jazeera, “Syrian Strikes on Aleppo ‘Kill Dozens’,” September 9, 2012, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2012/9/9/syrian-strikes-on-aleppo-kill-dozens.

Wilson Center, “Syria,” Accessed March 10, 2025, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/syria.

CSIS, “Syria’s Economic Collapse and Its Impact on the Most Vulnerable, 2021,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Accessed March 10, 2025, csis.org/analysis/syrias-economic-collapse-and-its-impact-most-vulnerable.

Aleksandar Kešeljević and Rok Spruk, “Estimating the Effects of Syrian Civil War,” Empirical Economics 66, no. 2 (2024): 671-703, link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00181-023-02470-2.

Global Financial Magazine, “Economy Wrecked by A Decade of War,” Accessed March 10, 2025, gfmag.com/country/syria-gdp-country-report/.

UN-OHCHR, “Behind the Data: Recording Civilian Casualties in Syria,” United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, May 11, 2023, https://www.ohchr.org/en/stories/2023/05/behind-data-recording-civilian-casualties-syria.

USIP, “Syria Timeline: Since the Uprising Against Assad,” United States Institute of Peace, 2021, usip.org/syria-timeline-uprising-against-assad.

Al Jazeera, “Syria’s War Explained from the Beginning,” April 14, 2018, aljazeera.com/news/2018/4/14/syrias-war-explained-from-the-beginning.

U.S. Department of State, “2023 Report on International Religious Freedom: Syria,” in 2023 Report on International Religious Freedom (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of State, June 2024), https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-report-on-international-religious-freedom/syria/.

World Bank, “Gross Domestic Product for Syrian Arab Republic (MKTGDPSYA646NWDB),” FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Accessed April 28, 2025, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MKTGDPSYA646NWDB.

Mark B. Taylor, Conflict Financing: What’s Wrong with War Economies?, NOREF Report (Oslo: Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre, May 2013), files.ethz.ch/isn/164674/738e4d8dd99cc71b53297ad29b01bae1.pdf.

Linda Matar, “Macroeconomic Framework in Pre-conflict Syria,” In Syria: From National Independence to Proxy War, eds. Linda Matar and Ali Kadri (Palgrave Macmillan Cham, October 10, 2018): 95-113, doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-98458-2_5.

Samer Abboud, “Capital, Business Elites and the Syrian Uprising,” In Actors and Dynamics in the Syrian Conflict’s Middle Phase (Routledge, 2022): 279-300.

Ibrahim Alnafrah and Sulaiman Mouselli, “Testing the External Shock Narrative of the Conflict on Transition Towards Knowledge Economy in Syria,” Journal of the Knowledge Economy 15, no. 1 (2024): 958-991, doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01121-2.

Syrian Arab Republic and UNDP, Syrian Arab Republic: Third National MDG Progress Report (Damascus: State Planning Commission and United Nations Development Programme, 2010), https://undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/MDGR-2010-En.pdf.

Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial, “Syria’s Conflict Economy,” IMF Working Paper No. 16/123 (International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., June 2016), imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16123.pdf.

Forat Suliman, Homam Khwanda, and RV Ramana Murthy, “An Analysis of the Syrian Economy in the Era of Military Conflict, 2011-2020: The Perspective of Government and Economics,” Journal of Government and Economics 11 (2023): 100082, doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2023.100082.

Samer Hamati, Les chiffres et le profil de la pauvreté antérieurs au conflit en Syrie Figures and Profile of Poverty Before the Conflict in Syria, One Pager, no. 428 (Brasília: Centre international de politiques pour la croissance inclusive, September 2019), repositorio.ipea.gov.br/bitstream/11058/14917/2/fr_OP428FR_Les_chiffres_et_le_profil_de_la_pauvrete.pdf.

Layth Alkhani, Syrian Oil Production 2006-2021, PH240 course report (Stanford University, December 10, 2023), large.stanford.edu/courses/2023/ph240/alkhani2/.

Eckart Woertz, Syria’s War Economy and Prospects of Reconstruction, Nota Internacional CIDOB 77 (Barcelona: CIDOB, September 2013), cidob.org/en/publications/syrias-war-economy-and-prospects-reconstruction.

Joseph Daher, The Political Economy of Syria: Deepening Pre‑War Orientations (Beirut: Arab Reform Initiative, 2020).

Harun Onder, A Decade of War in Syria: The Economic Side, World Bank Working Paper (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, April 2022), thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/ebb9b060753b7019705d1dafe9fe2e35-0280032021/original/April-22-Harun-OnderA-Decade-of-War-in-Syria-The-Economic-Side.pdf.

Reuters, “Exclusive: Syria Retains 26 Tons of Gold Reserves after Assad’s Fall,” December 16, 2024, reuters.com/markets/commodities/syria-retains-26-tons-gold-reserves-after-assads-fall-sources-2024-12-16/.

Navvar Saban, “Factbox: Iranian Influence and Presence in Syria,” MENASource (Atlantic Council), November 5, 2020, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/factbox-iranian-influence-and-presence-in-syria/.

Vladimir M. Akhmedov, “The Syrian Revolution,” In Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century: The New Waves of Revolutions, and the Causes and Effects of Disruptive Political Change (Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022): 707-723.

Ibrahim Alnafrah and Sulaiman Mouselli, “Testing the External Shock Narrative of the Conflict on Transition Towards Knowledge Economy in Syria,” Journal of the Knowledge Economy 15, no. 1 (2024): 958-991, doi.org/10.1007/s13132-023-01121-2.

Alexei Anishchuk, “Russia Warns against Military Intervention in Syria,” Reuters, August 26, 2013, reuters.com/article/world/russia-warns-against-military-intervention-in-syria-idUSBRE97P0G2/?utm.

Tugce Varol Sevim and Merve Sune Ozel, “Rethinking Russian Mission in Syria,” European Scientific Journal 9, no. 19 (2013).

Nageen Ashraf, “Syria as a Shatter Belt and the Great Power Competition,” Margalla Papers 26, no. 2 (2022): 28-38, doi.org/10.54690/margallapapers.26.2.111.

Kasım Ileri, “The Implications of Great Power Politics in the Decade Long Syrian Civil War,” İnsan ve Toplum 14, no. 1 (2024): 1-23. doi.org/10.12658/m0714.

Seth G. Jones and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., The Evolution of Russian and Iranian Cooperation in Syria (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 8, 2022), csis.org/analysis/evolution-russian-and-iranian-cooperation-syria.

Greg Simons, “Russia as a Powerful Broker in Syria: Hard and Soft Aspects,” KnE Social Sciences (2021): 418-432, doi.org/10.18502/kss.v5i2.8385.

Ohannes Guekjian, “The Objectives of Russia’s Military Intervention in Syria,” The Maghreb Review 42, no. 3 (2017): 274-306, https://doi.org/10.1353/tmr.2017.0009.

Antonio Perra, “From the Arab Spring to the Damascus Winter: The United States, Russia, and the New Cold War,” Contemporary Review of the Middle East 3, no. 4 (2016): 363-386, doi.org/10.1177/2347798916664578.

Ambassador (Ret.) James F. Jeffrey, statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee, U.S. Policy and Strategy in the Middle East, December 14, 2017, in Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing on U.S. Policy and Strategy in the Middle East, armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Jeffrey_12-14-17.pdf.

Dong Mingyang, “The Impact of Middle Eastern Turmoil on U.S. National Security: Causes, Consequences, and Countermeasures,” Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences 133, no. 1 (2025): 55-60, doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2025.19681.

John J. Mearsheimer, “America Unhinged,” The National Interest 129 (2014): 9-30, https://www.jstor.org/stable/44151042.

CNN, “Obama Warns Al-Assad Against Chemical Weapons, Declares ‘The World is Watching,” December 3, 2012, edition.cnn.com/2012/12/03/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html.

Yue Hanjing and Ying Zhu, “Great Power Game around the Chemical Weapons Attacks in Syria and the New Norm on Banning Chemical Weapons,” Scholars Journal of Economics, Business and Management 7, no. 9 (2020): 304-312, doi.org/10.36347/SJEBM.2020.V07I09.004.

Tess Bridgeman and Brianna Rosen, “Still at War: The United States in Syria,” Just Security, April 29, 2022, justsecurity.org/81313/still-at-war-the-united-states-in-syria/.

European Parliament, Directorate-General for External Policies, Policy Department, The Financing of the ‘Islamic State’ in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), In-Depth Analysis, IDAN/2017/603835 (Brussels: European Parliament, September 2017), europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2017/603835/EXPO_IDA(2017)603835_EN.pdf.

Eckart Woertz, How Long Will ISIS Last Economically?, Nota Internacional CIDOB 98 (Barcelona: CIDOB, October 2014), cidob.org/en/publications/how-long-will-isis-last-economically.

Osarodion Odosamamwen Izevbigie, “Roots and Goals of the State of Qatar’s Contradictory Foreign Policy: Implications for U.S. National Security Interests,” (Master’s thesis, Missouri State University, 2019), https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4473&context=theses.

Abdullah H. Al-Moussawi, “Iran and the Syrian Crisis,” Journal of US-China Public Administration 14, no. 3 (2017): 136-144, doi: 10.17265/1548-6591/2017.03.002.

Ephraim Kam, “Iranian Military Intervention in Syria: A New Approach,” Strategic Assessment 20, no. 2 (2017): 9-21, inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/fe-2484474937.pdf.

Amatzia Baram, “Iran’s Stakes in Syria”, GIS Reports, October 28, 2021, gisreportsonline.com/r/iran-syria/.

Sebastian Franzkowiak, “Only the Dead Have Seen the End of the War-How to Make Sense of Turkey’s Involvement in Syria,” In Europe – Against the Tide, eds. Matthias Waechter and Hartmut Marhold (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, 2019): 147-58.

Gencer Özcan and Soli Özel, “Turkey and the Syrian Crisis,” in The Struggle to Reshape the Middle East in the 21st Century, ed. Samer S. Shehata (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2023):129-53.

Ariel (Eli) Levite, “An Israeli Perspective on Syria,” Carnegie Middle East Center (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), June 9, 2014, carnegieendowment.org/research/2014/06/an-israeli-perspective-on-syria?lang=en.

EPC, “Israel’s Policy in Syria: Military Intervention and Reliance on Minorities,” Emirates Policy Center, April 9, 2025, epc.ae/en/details/brief/israel-s-policy-in-syria-military-intervention-and-reliance-on-minorities.

Tamer Qarmout, “Rebuilding Syria Requires Much More than Bricks and Mortar,” Al Jazeera, December 22, 2024, aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/12/22/rebuilding-syria-requires-much-more-than-bricks-and-mortar.

Bilal Mahli, Syria’s Post‑Conflict Recovery: Challenges and Prospects for Reconstruction and Stability, Policy Brief No. 22/25 (Rabat: Policy Center for the New South, April 11, 2025), https://policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2025-04/PB-22-25%20(Bilal%20Mahli).pdf.

United Nations Security Council, “Syria, April 2025 Monthly Forecast,” Security Council Report Monthly Forecast, March 31, 2025, securitycouncilreport.org/monthly-forecast/2025-04/syria-78.php.

Sinan Hatahet, “Syria’s Post‑Assad Honeymoon Is Over. Now the Hard Work of State‑Building Begins,” New Atlanticist, January 23, 2025, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/syrias-post-assad-honeymoon-is-over-now-the-hard-work-of-state-building-begins/.

Published

06-09-2025

Issue

Section

Research Articles

How to Cite

“Syria: Battleground of ‘Power, Politics and Economics’”. 2025. Journal of Aerospace & Security Studies 4 (1): 36-56. https://ojs.casstt.com/index.php/JASSJournal/article/view/21.