Integrating NLP and Scenario Analysis for the Future of Space Security: A Structured Examination of Online Expert Discourse

Abstract

This study conducts a scenario-based analysis of space security by integrating diverse perspectives from online media through advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP). Transcripts from 44 YouTube videos on space security are analysed including expert discussions, current news updates, and a diverse range of opinions to identify 14 key factors having an impact on the development of space security including international security environment, technological dependency, anti-satellite weaponry, space debris, governance, transparency, international cooperation, military organisation, commercial roles, cybersecurity, attack forms, commercial resilience, regulatory compliance, and space weather. Based on these factors, three scenarios of the future are developed: a Cooperative and Resilient Space Environment; a Fragmented and Vulnerable Space Domain; and a Chaotic and Hostile Space Environment. The stable future foresees strong international norms, robust cybersecurity, unified military organisation, and high commercial resilience, while the quasi-stable future reflects weakening international relations and governance. The unstable future is shaped by escalating geopolitical tensions, aggressive weaponisation, extreme debris, and severe space weather, leading to widespread disruption. This innovative methodology transforms unstructured online opinions into structured insights to guide policy and strategic decision-making.